Hollywood
2025 Oscar Predictions in Every Category
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions: All Categories
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Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 31, 2024): Sean Baker’s “Anora” has been working the festival circuit and has been a word-of-mouth hit everywhere it’s stopped.
It was rumored to be one of the first movies to sell out at the SCAD Savannah Film Festival, which screened earlier this week. Star Mikey Madison was on hand to receive the breakthrough award for her work as the title character.
At the same time, Jon M. Chu’s anticipated “Wicked” had its first social reactions drop earlier this week. The film is poised to become a blockbuster hit and could be a viable candidate for several Oscar categories, including best picture.
The screening of “Gladiator II” two weeks ago has instantly thrust the Paramount Pictures epic into the Oscar conversation, with the film positioned as a strong contender in several categories, including supporting actor frontrunner Denzel Washington, a two-time Academy Award winner.
Paramount Pictures also has their acquired drama “September 5,” which won the Audience Award at the Middleburg Film Festival, tying with Focus Features’ religious thriller “Conclave.” In the latter’s case, it could also mark the beginning of a stealth best picture winner if the momentum continues.
The latest updates to the Oscar predictions are below.
Top 4 projected nomination leaders (films): “Gladiator II” (12); “The Brutalist” and “Emilia Pérez” (9); “Dune: Part Two” and “Conclave” (8)
Top 4 projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (17); A24 and Paramount Pictures (13); Focus Features (10); Warner Bros. (8)
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Neon “Anora” (Neon) ***
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) -
Director
Image Credit: Focus Features Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
Edward Berger
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Brady Corbet
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Ridley Scott ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) -
Actor
Image Credit: A24 Adrien Brody
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Daniel Craig
“Queer” (A24)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Paul Mescal
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) -
Actress
Image Credit: A24 Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Angelina Jolie
“Maria” (Netflix)
Nicole Kidman
“Babygirl” (A24)
Mikey Madison ***
“Anora” (Neon)
Tilda Swinton
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) -
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Augusta Quirk Yura Borisov
“Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Stanley Tucci
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Denzel Washington ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) -
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Universal Pictures Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Ariana Grande
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Saoirse Ronan
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) -
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Bleecker Street “Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Mike Leigh
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“September 5” (Paramount Pictures)
Moritz Binder, Alex David, Tim Fehlbaum -
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
James Mangold, Jay Cocks
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Peter Craig, David Scarpa
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro Almodóvar -
Animated Feature
Image Credit: Everett Collection “Flow” (Janus Films and Sideshow)
Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, Gregory Zalcman
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
Kelsey Mann, Mark Nielsen
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
Adam Elliot, Liz Kearney
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***
Chris Sanders, Jeff Hermann -
Production Design
Image Credit: Apple “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Judy Becker
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
Arthur Max, Elli Griff
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Nathan Crowley -
Cinematography
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection “The Brutalist” (A24)
Lol Crawley
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Stéphane Fontaine
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Greig Fraser
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
John Mathieson
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Jarin Blaschke -
Costume Design
Image Credit: Pablo Larraín “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Jacqueline West
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Janty Yates
“Maria” (Netflix)
Massimo Cantini Parrini
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Linda Muir
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***
Paul TazewellOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Film Editing
Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros./Everett Collection “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Nick Emerson
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Joe Walker
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Juliette Welfling
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
Sam Restivo, Claire Simpson -
Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: A24
“A Different Man” (A24)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Sound
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Colle “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Visual Effects
Image Credit: ©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Original Score
“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
Daniel Blumberg
“Challengers” (Amazon/MGM)
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Clément Ducol, Camille
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Alberto Iglesias
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Kris Bowers -
Original Song
Image Credit: DISNEY
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“Winter Coat” by Nicholas Britell, Steve McQueen, and Taura Stinson
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Mi Camino” by Clément Ducol and Camille
“The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“The Journey” by Diane Warren
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
“Kiss the Sky” by Delacey, Jordan Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack & Ali Tamposi
“Will & Harper” (Netflix)
“Harper and Will Go West” by Sean Douglas, Kristen Wiig & Josh Greenbaum -
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Netflix “Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)
dir. Shiori Itô
“Dahomey” (Mubi)
dir. Mati Diop
“Daughters” (Netflix) ***
dir. Angela Patton, Natalie Rae
“No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme)
dirs. Yuval Abraham, Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Rachel Szor, Fabien Greenberg, Bård Kjøge Rønning
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
dir. Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie -
International Feature
Image Credit: Neon “Dahomey” from Senegal (Mubi)
dir. Mati Diop
“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
dir. Jacques Audiard
“Grand Tour” from Portugal (Mubi)
dir. Miguel Gomes
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
dir. Walter Salles
“The Seed of a Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)
dir. Mohammad Rasoulof
